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We are on the verge of another Legendary drop in NBA Top Shot, and we just discovered on Friday it will be HOLO ICON.

Now that we know what’s coming, the question is: are we ready for more Legendary Moments? And better yet, are we ready for this drop?

We know it will likely be preceded by a Stress Test (most major pack drops are). And the going rumour is that it will be Release 27, which many people have linked to here.

In this post, we’ll recap the history of HOLO drops and explore their potential impact on the market.

Watch LgDoucet and TheReelPhilD break down the 30 HOLO + 30 MGLE + 20 Base Moments coming to Top Shot

What Will The Short Terms Effects Be?

Short-Lived Sell-Off

The last HOLO ICON drop was priced at $999, and that caused a sell-off of Moments in the marketplace as collectors tried to raise the necessary funds to buy the packs. However, the turnaround between the announcement and the drop was only about 14 hours (it was announced at 10pm PST on Friday, February 5th, and released the next day at 12pm PST), so its effect on the market was minimal.

For context, Legendary Drops aren’t the only ones that lead to mass sell-offs. Other pricey drops — such as the last Premium Drop (priced at $99) — also caused marketplace sell-offs despite its more “reasonable” price tag.

Will it happen again once the actual price of this next Legendary pack is announced? Very likely, especially if the time between the official announcement and the drop is prolonged.

Potential Positive Reaction to the New Drop Restrictions

We know that Collectors will need to meet specific qualifications to participate in this next Legendary Drop. We don’t know what those requirements are, but there are two prevailing theories:

  1. Challenge-Gated: Collectors would need to have completed a Challenge to be eligible.
  2. Moment-Gated: Collectors would need to be holding a specific total of Moments (say 20) to be eligibile.

Of course, it could be something entirely different, like marketplace activity or longevity of account.

Regardless of the mechanics, I would assume that many community members will view these restrictions in a positive light. Yes, they might not end up being fair for everyone, but this type of system has been in demand for a long time and will help to shape the future of Top Shot. Getting the most valuable assets distributed in a way that rewards “Genuine Collectors” is vital to the future.

We talked about these scenarios on the pod last week with Greg Murray.

Have a listen!

Lottery Ticket Mentality

It’s a painful truth: the current average Top Shot Collector is not in a position to complete Legendary Challenges. The last two HOLO ICON challenges had 58 (Trae Young Reward) and 44 (James Harden Reward) completions respectively, and there are only 38 in line to finish the Nicola Jokic Reward challenge currently running according to Live Token.

And although Legendary moments can be an excellent portfolio piece, the reality is that many Collectors see them as a cash cow. Take the Steph Curry HOLO ICON for example: it was released on February 6th in a Pack Drop, and out of its 65 all-time sales, only 21 came after it was no longer required for the James Harden Challenge.

That means 64% of it sales came in the first 15 days after release (18% on the first day!). And that’s for STEPH CURRY!

And despite the narrative in the community that the “get-rich-quick” folks have been weeded out, we don’t have reason (yet) to believe that the majority of Collectors won’t yet again see the HOLO drop as a money maker.

Steph Curry Sales from Feb 6-19, 2021
Chart from Evaluate.Market

The Long Term Effects of more HOLO ICON

A drop like this is not short of its longer term effects on the Top Shot ecosystem.

A New Legendary for Key Players (which is not a bad thing!)

Perhaps the absolute biggest impact of new Legendary Moments is on the overall value of the players they feature. Seeing as Legendary Moments are the rarest and typically most valuable in all of Top Shot, these new HOLOs could have major saturation effects.

As you can see from the chart below, this will be the 2nd Legendary Moment for 11 of these 30 players, and the 3rd for 7 of these players.

Historically, it’s difficult to gauge the impact of a new Legendary Moment for a player, seeing as the market has been so incredibly volatile. But with the recent stability, will these new Legendaries mean a dip for their predecessors? Or is an added (and potentially more accessible) legendary Moment welcomed?

PlayerLegendary Moments
(Including new HOLO)
Total Plays in Top Shot
(Including new HOLO)
John Collins25
Kyrie Irving38
Jayson Tatum510
Terry Rozier24
Lauri Markkanen12
Collin Sexton24
Kristaps Porziņģis35
Jamal Murray29
Josh Jackson12
Draymond Green24
John Wall14
Damontas Sabonis27
Paul George38
LeBron James526
Ja Morant38
Giannis Antetokounmpo624
Bam Adebayo28
Anthony Edwards15
Julius Randle27
Lonzo Ball13
Darius Bazley24
Terrence Ross13
Ben Simmons28
Damian Lillard49
Chris Paul39
Tyrese Haliburton14
Keldon Johnson12
Pascal Siakam34
Donovan Mitchell213
Bradley Beal37

More Core Set Moments

If you follow the rumblings and grumblings of NBA Top Shot, you have no doubt heard about the idea of there being “Core Sets”, as in Sets that are the core elements of the product.

They are: Base, Metallic Gold, Holo, and Platinum Ice. Many speculators have implied that these sets will have important designations within Hardcourt (the rumoured mobile game that will utilize Moments).

To hear more about these Sets, as well as a historical viewpoint of the HOLO set, take a listen to this podcast with Steve Veerman (one of the Top Shot OGs) as we discuss their significance.

The Setup for a *NEW* Legendary Set

This marks only the third Legendary release of Series 2 (Deck The Hoops and Holo Icon 1st Release). In Series 1, we saw FIVE different Legendary Sets (Cosmic, Holo, From The Top, Finals, Lace Em Up).

This is technically still part of the HOLO ICON series, meaning its still just the second set of Legendary Moments in S2.

So what does the future hold? More HOLO ICON? Legendary Playoff Sets again? Or something entirely different…

Time will tell!

But on the plus side….we’re getting a new Lebron Legendary! So that’s pretty cool.

Best of luck in the pack drop, whenever it may be.