If we’re to trust A&E — and who wouldn’t — the first 48 hours are the most crucial for homicide investigators. Facts are fresh, and general momentum generates leads that can hopefully find a suspect. But before this gets too morbid, our resident NBA Top Shot coroner and graphic guru Greg Murray gives a post-mortem to the Rising Stars 1 challenge.

Forget the First 48, we’re here for the Post 48: 

A graph that analyzes how the Rising Stars 1 challenge moments were performing 48 hours after the challenge's completion.

Specifically, Greg analyzed the trends of all 10 challenge moments AFTER the challenge had ended, including the Anthony Edwards dunk of the season that handed out as the reward.

So what did we learn? 

Of the 1040 collectors who completed the challenge, 64% (667) continued to hold all the challenge’s required moments 48 hours later. Maybe this is a sign of collectors waiting for the dust to settle on a bear market. Or maybe this is a sign that the term ‘collectors’ is starting to mean more? Maybe we’re seeing NBA Top Shot move toward the intentions Dapper Labs had all along: A platform and community for collectors first, not investors. 

The other 36% (373) sold at least one required moment, presumably looking to recoup some of the Dapper bucks they invested to complete. Only 35 sellers/flippers/ripcord pullers sold all 10 moments in the 48 hours following the challenge’s completion. And although Edwards was a slam dunk reward, LaMelo Ball was the least sold moment among the full Rising Star 1 challenge set. If this isn’t setting itself up for a juicy Rookie of the Year narrative down the stretch, then… you must be a Tyrese Haliburton fan. 

Now, what did the 35 collectors who sold every moment earn for their troubles? The average return was $6,861. During the challenge completion cost high was $11.8k, low was $6.6k, but fluctuated between $8-10k for most of the challenge. Profits/Losses were not determined for this challenge case study, but may be included for future challenges. Because, as you math whizzes and abacus aficionados can see, the 35 complete sellers either just squeaked out ahead, or they made a terrible hedge and got liquid for a loss. 

Keep in mind this isn’t a deep dive into serial numbers or any outlier situations. And this analysis didn’t consider gifts. Maybe all 35 of those true sellers made money; that’s for another fancy graphic or investigation another day. 

Instant Sell Off

In the direct aftermath of the challenge, completers sold 560 moments in the hour after it ended. That means some collectors were trimming the fat or dead weight of items they no longer coveted. This is also only showing you SOLD moments. There’s a good chance even more completers wanted to SELL but listed their moments too high. Whether they were looking to recoup what they paid, or they were getting undercut, we have to consider at least some others wanted to get out and didn’t. 

Finally, 75 Edwards Dunks were sold in the 3 hours following initial distribution. Median price for Edwards in the first hour of distribution was $2549 (23 sales). Median price for the following 42 hours was $3,350 (101 sales).

TimingMedian Moment PriceSales Volume
First Hour After Distribution$2,54923
Next 42 Hours After Initial Hour$3,350101

The key takeaway here is that in the usual chaos following reward distributions — before the market can balance — there are grossly mispriced rewards hitting the market by eager sellers. If you’re holding a reward, hold off on putting it for sale right away. Savour it for a second, let it mature in your collection, let the market decide what it’s really worth. Basically, treat it like a nice red wine, not some home-brew. 

What does it mean?

Now for a postmortem of the postmortem: What does this mean? Or does it mean anything? The blockchain data can’t hide from anyone, but the opinions we form based on that data can be interpreted every which way but loose (an underrated orangutan buddy comedy btw). It could be some completers are protecting themselves in case there’s a surprise Rising Stars Master challenge (100% speculation!).

It could also just be as simple as there are less sellers/flippers of these challenges than we think, or people are intuiting to not sell immediately during the dip and letting the dust settle. Either way, expect more of these beautiful graphics in the future as we try to determine if challenges are worth it. 

For another angle on this subject, take a look at Taylor’s article here

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